The FTI stated that the economy this year could expand in the range of 2.5 - 3.0% from the expectation that the government's free visa measures will help support tourism during the high season, along with evaluating the impact on the economy in 2024. The world and Chinese economy that do not continue to drag down the Thai economy may grow only 2.7%, along with offering a way to stimulate the economy and the purchasing power of the people. Especially the 560 billion baht economic stimulus project, but it should be limited to specific groups and areas of use in order to produce economic results.
Mr. Sanan Angubolkul, Chairman of the Board of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Board of Trade of Thailand as Chairman The FTI spoke after chairing the meeting. A joint committee of 3 private sector institutions (CPF) consisting of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Federation of Thai Industries and the Thai Bankers Association, where the FTI organized a committee meeting for October 2023 with Mr. Thawee Piyapatthana, Senior Vice President of the Federation of Thai Industries, and Mr. Phayong Sriwanit, President of the Thai Bankers Association. Co-chaired the meeting where the FTI assessed the economy as follows:
The world economy continues to slow and tends to recover more slowly than expected. The global economy is volatile and full of uncertainty. The OECD recently estimated that global GDP will grow only around 3.0% in 2023 and only 2.7% in 2024, with China's economic problems having an economic impact on the country. in the Asian region US economy and Europe is still likely to be in a slowdown direction, as reflected by the Purchasing Managers' Index for both the service and manufacturing sectors. As a result, Thai exports during the rest of this year face risks from a slow recovery of foreign demand.
The baht has continued to depreciate due to both external and domestic factors. The baht weakened in line with the strengthening dollar as the Fed tends to keep interest rates high for longer than expected. In addition, the Chinese economy has weakened during this period, resulting in the value of the Yuan and other currencies in the Asian region continued to depreciate Meanwhile, the value of the baht still has domestic factors from concerns about the government's economic stimulus policies that require large amounts of money. and the fiscal deficit increased This is despite the baht depreciating relatively quickly in September. But overall, it is still in line with regional currencies in the first 9 months of the year.
This year's economy can expand in the range of 2.5 - 3.0%. It is expected that the government's free visa measures will help support tourism during the high season, helping to increase the arrival of about 340,000 Chinese tourists, increasing the number of tourists. Foreigners are likely to reach the level of 29 - 30 million this year. Under the management of safety and to accelerate the confidence of foreign tourists during the tourist season. However, we still need to monitor climate change (El Niño) that will have an impact on the agricultural sector. Including energy prices in the world market that are in an upward direction, which may have an effect on domestic energy prices after the price reduction period according to government policy ends.
The FTI meeting will also prepare economic proposals to the new government. and request that the meeting of the joint public-private committee to solve economic problems (Central Corridor) be revived, chaired by the Prime Minister. It is proposed that the government hold a meeting every 3 months to serve as a forum for presenting opinions and guidelines for driving closer cooperation between the government and the private sector. and expedite action to resolve laws that are obstacles and are inconsistent with the current situation (Regulatory Guillotine) by prioritizing them. In order to have results quickly
In addition, the FTI also discussed additional important issues, including:
1. Helping SMEs access credit is more necessary than a debt suspension because SMEs are affected by COVID-19. Still recovering slowly and still not having full access to credit. This can be seen from the amount of SME loans that is still shrinking and a survey of SME opinions by the Office of Small and Medium Enterprises Promotion (OSMEP) that found that they wanted access to credit rather than a moratorium on debt payments. It should support and push SME businesses to be ready to support opportunities from the economy that is entering the high season of the tourism sector at the end of this year. and the government's massive economic stimulus with a total of 560 billion baht at the beginning of next year. The committee meeting proposed that the government use the mechanism of The Small Industry Credit Guarantee Corporation (TCG) has expanded credit guarantees for SMEs, increasing the guarantee rate from 30% to 50-60% by integrating the use of OSMEP funds. As a whole, it helps support loan guarantee fees. to reduce costs and help increase opportunities for SMEs to access funding sources.
2. The FTI meeting supports the economic stimulus project of 560 billion baht, but suggests that it should be limited to target groups that meet the needs. and limited area of use to create double economic results (Multiplier) more By supporting spending on products produced within the country (Local Content). If the budget can be controlled appropriately, there will be a budget to invest in water management as well, which is urgently important. To ensure that the growth of the Thai economy next year is uninterrupted and in accordance with the target. Focus on continuous growth
3. Adjusting the national minimum wage rate should use the mechanism of the tripartite committee to determine the guidelines. In order to be in accordance with the suitability of the economic situation in each province. Because the context and potential of each province are different. The minimum wage adjustment should be in accordance with labor law (Section 87 of the Labor Protection Act which determines factors in considering the minimum wage increase, such as inflation, cost of living, production costs, etc.)
4. Push forward the negotiation of FTA trade agreements between Thailand and foreign countries as much as possible. By accelerating the push for FTA negotiations currently in progress to be completed within the time frame for Thailand - EU, Thailand - Sri Lanka, Thailand - EFTA and opening negotiations to create FTA free trade agreements in important markets and new markets. and open negotiations for FTA free trade agreements in important and new markets such as the Middle East, South Africa, and Latin America, as well as FTAs that are currently being negotiated to be completed quickly. Including the establishment of the FTA Fund to promote and provide relief to those affected by trade liberalization. To expand trade opportunities and increase Thailand's competitiveness with neighboring countries.
5. The EEC meeting agreed that the government should support and invest in EEC infrastructure to attract continued investment. There are important issues that must be driven continuously. According to the overall draft plan for the development of the EEC, Phase 2, the context of changes affecting the EEC, grouping specific target industry clusters (2023 - 2027) according to 5 guidelines, consisting of 1) promoting investment in target industries and services of the future; 2) Increase efficiency and utilization of infrastructure and public utility systems 3) Raise the skills of workers to be ready for changes in technology and innovation. 4) Develop cities to be modern, livable and suitable for occupations, and 5) Link benefits from investment to community sustainability. Especially managing water in the EEC area to ensure it is sufficient for use in the industrial sector and ensuring readiness for foreign investors.
Accelerate the government's water management plan to achieve concrete results. In 2023, the amount of water actually usable as of October 2023 was at the level of 54%, which is lower than the level in the same period of 2022 at the level of 66% if the Elni condition. Yo is violent The amount of rain falling will be even lower than normal. It will result in the amount of usable water being even less and causing the damage from drought to become more severe and will have a wide impact. Therefore, the private sector requests that the government integrate the operations of relevant government mechanisms. So that water management is in the same direction. Water can be allocated for consumption, especially in important target areas such as the EEC and the northeastern region. Please expedite the development of important water reservoirs. To store reserves for the eastern region, such as the Wang Tanod Canal Reservoir Project. Including the establishment of a water management committee in the EEC area and reviewing the 20-year water resource plan that places importance on the development of new water sources in the northern region. Northeast
However, in summary, the private sector agrees that water management issues are urgently important. The government should therefore focus on budget allocation for water management, both short-term and long-term. You may consider using some of the budget from the economic stimulus project. To ensure that the growth of the Thai economy next year is uninterrupted and in accordance with the target.
7. Push forward the Carbon credit method so that it can be linked to international standards. and can conduct concrete trade with foreign countries The joint private sector committee of 3 institutions (SEC) will determine the role of the private sector in preparation. By the Chamber of Commerce Focus on the trade sector Agriculture and services Federation of Thai Industries Focus on the manufacturing sector And the Thai Bankers Association will come to support the financial sector. To create a clear format and be able to drive Carbon credit measures and be able to solve the problem of the European Union's pre-border carbon adjustment measures (CBAM) on the spot. Reduce the impact on exporters to the EU, etc.
Source: Thai News Agency