Bangkok, Aug. 18- KGI expects the Thai economy to grow 2.4% in 2Q23, down from 2.7% in 1Q23.
Mr. Prakrom Patomboon, Senior Vice President of Research Department, KGI Securities (KGI), expects the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDB) to report Q2/2023 GDP on Monday, August 21, 2023. GDP is expected in the quarter. in 2Q23 will expand 2.4% compared to the same period last year, down from 2.7% in 1Q23 due to the economic slowdown. Reflected from the main economic index compared to the slowdown or contraction in the 2nd quarter, except for the improvement in the private consumption index and the service sector.
Positive factors that helped GDP growth in Q2/2023 were:
1) Private consumption services index continued to grow at a higher level compared to several previous quarters. Both from more foreign tourist arrivals and spending during the general election campaign on May 14
2) Foreign tourist arrivals continued to increase by 374% to 6.437 million in Q2/2023. from 1.583 million in Q2/2022, but slightly down from 6.477 million in Q1/
23 /23 Surplus of 11.043 billion baht ($2.945 billion) and in the second quarter of 2022, a surplus of 93.31 billion baht ($2.698 billion).
The negative factor weighing on 2Q23 GDP growth was
manufacturing production and private investment in 2Q23, which shrank by 5.7% YoY and 0.5% YoY, down from 3.7% YoY and 0.2% YoY in 2Q20. The 1st quarter of 2023 reflected a slowdown in domestic and international economic conditions. The 2Q23 current account returned to a deficit of 640.6 billion baht ($1.899 billion), compared to a surplus in the first quarter of 1387 billion baht ($3.961 billion). still shrinking Due to the high base caused by expenses for the case of COVID-19 last year, while government spending in the 2nd quarter of 2023 did not have such expenses and government spending that had to be wheeled according to the Por. Expense Budget Act 2023 because there is no Expenditure Budget Act 2024
Production side
1) Agricultural production (9.2%) is expected to expand by 3.5%YoY in Q2/2023 from agricultural production increasing by 0.6%YoY
2) Non-agricultural production (90.8%) is expected will expand 1.9%YoY, with manufacturing output (33.0%) falling 3.9%YoY, and services (57.8%) expanding 5.8%YoY.
spending
Private final consumption expenditure in the second quarter of 2023 will grow 6.1%YoY, supported by increased foreign tourist arrivals and pre-election spending. While farmer's income declined
2) Government final consumption expenditure will contract 4.9%YoY in 2Q23
3) Total investment will increase 1.5%YoY Government investment is expected to increase 2.2%YoY, while Private investment will increase by 1.3%YoY.
4) Inventory tends to decrease. Gold bullion stocks declined from gold prices in the world market returning to an uptrend, resulting in gold bullion sales. Crude stocks dropped as crude oil prices fell. While stocks of agricultural products will not change.
5) The current account in Q2/2023 returned to a deficit of 64.06 billion baht ($1.899 billion) .-Thai News Agency
Source: Thai News Agency