Bangkok: Mr. Suwat Sinsadok, Managing Director of Globlex Securities Co., Ltd., has provided an analysis of the recent Israeli-Iranian conflict, indicating potential benefits for the United States, particularly in relation to oil prices.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Suwat projects that oil prices will remain above $75-$80 per barrel this year and could exceed $80 per barrel next year, given the likelihood of the conflict extending for a year.
Mr. Suwat questions Israel’s motives for attacking Iran and highlights the potential impact on global oil prices. He suggests that Israel’s perception of Iran’s nuclear capabilities as a threat has prompted the recent aggression, despite the United States’ claims of non-involvement and lack of assistance. The analysis delves into the implications of continued unrest in the Middle East, which could benefit the United States through increased arms sales to Arab countries with limited military capabilities, such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar.
With traditional opponents like Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, and Syria weakened, Iran stands out as a formidable adversary capable of challenging Israel. Mr. Suwat raises critical questions about Israel’s fear of Iran’s nuclear potential and its willingness to initiate conflict without overt US support. The analysis also touches on the United States’ strategic position as a leading oil and gas producer, benefiting from rising oil prices and exerting pressure on China, the largest oil importer.
The United States has leveraged fracking technology to boost shale oil and gas production, reducing its reliance on Middle Eastern oil. This shift has diminished the impact of Middle Eastern conflicts on oil prices, with the US emerging as a dominant player in global energy markets. Mr. Suwat suggests that the US is using energy as a strategic tool, with Israel acting as a proxy in its conflicts with Hamas and now Iran. The expectation is that oil prices will remain elevated due to the ongoing Israel-Iran war, further influencing global economic dynamics.