The EPA reveals that the price of diesel does not exceed 32 baht if the treasury increases the tax by 5 baht.

Feb reveals that it is preparing to write a letter to the acting government and the new government. Shows the assumption of the direction of world oil prices. and fund burden Let the policy department decide the diesel direction. Specify if the world price does not go up will maintain the base price of 32 baht/liter until the end of the year by reducing the oil fund coupled with a tax increase of 5 baht / liter, but if the government wants to reduce the price of diesel further must use tax policy to take care of

Mr. Wisak Wattanasap, director of the Oil Fund Office (Fuel Fund), said that the Board of Fund, which is chaired by the Minister of Energy. ordered the fund Prepare a summary of various assumptions (Scenario Analysis) presented to the acting government. and new government To know the direction and provide political policies to decide how to proceed with regard to the direction of diesel prices. Which is currently priced at about 32 baht/liter under the reduction of the excise tax on diesel by 5 baht/liter until July 20, 2023 (only 1.34 baht/liter) and collecting the oil fund 5.43 baht/liter

The NPA has followed the price until the end of 2023, estimating that if the world diesel price is at the current price of about $ 90 / barrel. And the exchange rate is about 33-35 baht / US dollar. has prepared two assumptions as follows:

1. In the case of the government's policy to increase the diesel tax by 5 baht/liter after July 20, 2023, the CAF expects to be able to maintain the diesel price level by 32 baht/liter by reducing the collection of the CPF. 5 baht/liter, with the diesel fund remaining at about 43 satang/liter, which would be sufficient to maintain liquidity in the fund.

2. If the government wants to reduce the price of diesel to less than 32 baht/liter, in this case the government must use tax policies to take care of it. Instead of immediately increasing 5 baht/liter, it will have to gradually increase, perhaps 2-3 baht/liter. will take care of it by reducing the collection of the fund, for example, if you want to see diesel 30 baht / liter, you have to reduce the tax by 2 baht / liter and reduce the collection of the oil fund by 5 baht / liter

At present (May 29, 2023), the latest oil fund is minus 69,000 million baht from the highest minus of more than 130 billion baht, with liquidity now improving due to lower world oil prices. There is an inflow of around 10,000 million baht/month. (From collecting funds at the current rate) and in the next 2 months, it is expected that the capital will be negative to 50 billion baht. Diesel storage from 5.43 baht to about 0.43 baht / liter From the total diesel consumption of about 65-67 million liters / day, it is expected that there will be an inflow of about 1,000 million baht / month into this fund. It should have enough money to pay back the creditors borrowed by the Fund, which has now borrowed 50 billion baht and will borrow an additional 20 billion baht to 70 billion baht within June, which is borrowed like this. will be enough Do not borrow more According to the framework, it has been approved by the Cabinet to borrow in the amount of 150,000 million baht, of which 110,000 million baht has already been included in the country's public debt.

“The Fund is ready to reduce the levy for diesel. which must be considered from government policies, world market prices, creditor repayments and the implementation of fiscal and financial discipline, which if the Singapore diesel price is still at $ 90, diesel consumption is still high around 65-67 million barrels / day. Cash will come in positive, not negative. It is expected that diesel prices will stay at 32 baht despite the tax increase of 5 baht / liter, ”said Wisak.

The main factor that the fund's liquidity improved came from oil prices in the world market eased, global diesel (Gas Oil) in October 2022, which used to reach $ 133.84 / barrel. During the first 2 weeks of May (May 1-12, 2023), the average diesel price dropped to $ 87.49 / barrel. or an average drop of nearly 10 USD/barrel compared to April

Another factor is The Oil Fund's ability to borrow money to pay debts improved after the Ministry of Finance guaranteed loans from the NIA, resulting in more liquidity. And has already reduced the retail price of diesel fuel since the beginning of the year 2023, up to 6 times, from 35 baht / liter to 32 baht / liter (as of May 15, 2023).

However, there are threats that will cause oil prices to return to volatility again. and have to manage the fund To maintain the stability of oil prices is world market conditions, including the war between Russia and Ukraine. OPEC Plus oil production cuts The move of the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates. exchange rate fluctuations as well as geopolitical conflicts Including the direction of the US-European economy, which is recession, with the Board of Directors having meetings to discuss continuously. in order to manage the event in a timely manner Ready to review the plan to support the fuel crisis in accordance with the current situation.

Source: Thai News Agency

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